We had quite a bit of rain, nearly 50mm in fact, over the last week. Quite a bit, but we may have escaped lightly compared to other parts of the south. Fortunately, we have now had nearly 4 days without rain and the rate of climb of water levels in the Tilshead aquifer has slowed to a crawl over the last 48 hours. Water levels in the River Till have also been rising rapidly and the footpath from Church Cottage, over the footbridge to Over the Hill is now under water in parts.
The weekly graph shows the quite dramatic rise that started earlier in the week. Water levels have now passed the 99.00m AOD level that the Environment Agency regards as the top of the normal range for the borehole.
So, what does all this mean in the greater scheme of things? Is the level particularly high, or have we had worse years? Well, you might think that was an easy question to answer, but when it comes to the hydrology of this area, nothing is ever straightforward.
If we look at data for the last 11 years, the water level on the 2nd of February 2025 comes ony second to the water level on the 2nd of February 2014, and is marginally deeper than the same date in 2023. However, it is noticeaby higher than last year. Of course, rainfall doesn’t happen at the same exact time every year, so we need to look at some other measure.
If we look at the date the maximum level is reached, that happens over 50% of the time in February of the year. It’s only happened around 20% of the time in January and 30% of the time in March, so date-wise, the floods are pretty much in the anticipated window this year. However, when we look at the depth measurements, so far this year is only the 5th deepest year; 2014, 2020, 2023 and 2024 all being worse. Of course, levels are still creeping up and may eventually exceed levels in some of the previous years, but for the moment, 2025 is an average flood season.
Subjectively, the water level in Peter Smith’s well was noted at 125 cm below his dining room floor last year and yesterday was measured at 99 cm below the floor. Unfortunately, Peter doesn’t have the date of the first measurement so we can’t do a direct comparison. Water levels in the River Till have risen, but it’s hard to get a realistic objective measure beyond the fact we have exceeded the bankfull level; the level at which it breaks its banks and floods surrounding land. The Environment Agency data shows that the level of the River Till in Shrewton in 54cm above the maximum level previously recorded in its database on 9th May 2023. These data seem more than a little suspect. We still have 3 Flood Warnings and 3 Flood Alerts in place for this area and none seem likely to go away until at least the middle of next week.
We are now approaching the point in the year when what happens next becomes even harder to predict. The whole system is on a knife edge and more heavy rain will tip the balance towards flood. However, temperature and sunlight begin to play an increasing part as Spring gets underway and plants start to take up water from the ground surface. We’ve already got Snowdrops and Daffodils in bloom, so trees breaking bud and coming into leaf can only be a few weeks away.
Drizzle and light rain may move into our area from the west this evening and overnight. It’s going to be cold overnight, but the temperature may begin to rise slowly during the week. The damp weather may persist into Monday with more significant rainfall on Tuesday, which will blow through and be followed by a fine, dry spell. Heading towards the middle of February, things get a little trickier. We may miss the next Atlantic system bringing rain, but we may pay for this with a very cold spell. Rainfall levels are likely to be lower than average early in the month but return to normal by the end of it, so no respite in sight quite yet.