What a difference a week can make. The rate-of-rise in the water level of the Tilshead aquifer has accelerated four-fold from the previous week; from 1 metre/month to 1 metre per week. That all sounds very dramatic, but to put it into context, it means the rate at which the aquifer is filling is comparable with the 8-year average, but is lagging a fortnight behind the average time of year for the current depth. If this continues, you might expect to see water levels hitting 85-90 metres AOD within the next fortnight if we have typical levels of rain. For the moment, levels remain some 5 metres below average and 15 metres lower than flood levels.
So, what is the weather going to do in the week ahead? With a clear sky at the moment, rain during daylight today looks unlikely, but it is blowing in from the west. It will certainly arrive overnight and we look set to have a week of showers. The middle of January looks set to give us a drier spell, with colder nights and frosts, with rain and more unsettled weather returning towards the end of the month, but here in the south, we may get a few longer drier periods. Whilst there may be snow in the north of the country, it seems unlikely that we are going to see any here.